中心向凡助理教授（独立作者）撰写的学术论文《Mission impossible? An empirical study on bail likelihood and court considerations in Hong Kong under the National Security Law》，发表于《Asia Pacific Law Review》。该刊为SSCI一区刊物，系深圳大学校定权威刊物。
ABSTRACT ：The bail provision in Article 42(2) of Hong Kong’s National Security Law (NSL) is one of the most controversial aspects of this contentious legislation. This article presents the first systematic exploration of the NSL bail regime and its practical application. It begins by examining NSL 42(2) and its interpretation by Hong Kong’s highest court, which views it as an alteration to the city’s original bail rules that favours the granting of bail. The article then focuses on its implementation by lower courts, particularly exploring bail likelihood and court considerations under the new framework. By analysing all decided bail cases with written judgments from 30 June 2020, when the NSL came into force, to 30 June 2023, this article finds that not an inconsiderable number of suspects facing national security charges can still obtain bail, challenging the common belief that securing bail for such suspects is nearly impossible. The analysis also highlights that courts, in making bail decisions, heavily weigh factors such as the suspects’ determination against authorities or the constitutional order, their endorsed methods for achieving their agendas and their political connections. The article concludes by advocating for a more pragmatic expectation of Hong Kong courts’ performance in the changing political climate, while cautioning against placing undue emphasis on political connections in bail determinations, as this could potentially compromise the presumption of innocence. This study aims to enhance understanding of the NSL bail system and provide academic perspectives for legal practitioners navigating the evolving legal landscape within the courts.
KEYWORDS ：Hong Kong; national security law; bail; presumption of innocence; judicial politics
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